For most of 2026, chicken and cheese were the bargains of the restaurant kitchen. That break may be ending. New forecasts from ArrowStream, a foodservice supply-chain forecasting company, project that some of this year’s cheapest ingredients will become some of next year’s biggest cost increases. For restaurant owners setting 2027 budgets and menus right now, the timing matters. For diners, it helps explain why the price of a wing combo or a chicken sandwich could move next year.
The 2027 forecast in numbers
According to Modern Restaurant Management, which reported the forecast on Oct. 28, ArrowStream expects these swings from 2026 to 2027:
- Chicken wings: down 23.7% in 2026, then up 42.2% in 2027.
- Liquid eggs: down 71.4% in 2026, then up 44.8% in 2027.
- Chicken breast: down 27.4% in 2026, then up 21.3% in 2027.
- Cheese: down 13.4% in 2026, then up 13.1% in 2027.
QSR Web adds that ground beef costs are projected to rise another 2.3%. “The inflation pressure is shifting, and next year’s biggest increases may hit restaurants built around chicken and cheese,” said David Maloni, ArrowStream’s senior director of commodities, in the Modern Restaurant Management report.
One important caveat: these are projections of commodity costs, not menu prices. QSR Web notes that how much of the pressure reaches guests will depend on each operator’s margins, pricing decisions and ability to absorb higher expenses.
Which restaurants are most exposed
ArrowStream’s Restaurant Commodity Index estimates how a typical basket of ingredients will change for different kinds of restaurants. The 2027 projections, as reported by Modern Restaurant Management and QSR Web, look like this:
- Wing-focused concepts: roughly 21%
- Barbecue: 8.7%
- Fast food: 8.1%
- Pizza: 7.9%
- Fast casual: 7.3%
- Mexican: 6.5%
- Family dining: 6.3%
- Casual dining: 3%
- Steakhouses: essentially flat (down 0.1%)
The steakhouse result surprises people because beef is expensive. Maloni’s explanation is that beef can stay expensive without posting the biggest additional increase. QSR Web reports that U.S. beef production is running about 5% below year-ago levels after years of herd contraction, and that a meaningful supply recovery could be 18 to 30 months away. In other words, beef is already priced high, while chicken and cheese are starting from unusually low levels.
Why the bargains are reversing
It is a classic commodity cycle. QSR Web reports that cheese prices in September were the lowest for that month since at least 2015, helped by a U.S. dairy herd at its largest since 1993, and that chicken breast hit its lowest September average in the period ArrowStream tracks. Low prices push producers to slow output. Maloni said chicken producers are beginning to do exactly that, which could push costs back up in 2027.
Not every dairy ingredient is cheap, either. Maloni told QSR Web that nonfat dry milk prices were within 10 cents of their record high and that whey had reached an all-time high. A single headline price rarely tells the whole story.
Freight and energy are the hidden line item
Food is only part of the bill. Maloni named diesel and freight as his biggest concerns heading into 2027, because transportation is built into the cost of everything that arrives at the back door. Higher diesel prices and freight rates can make a product more expensive even when the commodity itself hasn’t moved.
The broader inflation data points the same way. QSR Web, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reports that U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, with gasoline up 9.1% for the month and energy prices 20.4% higher than a year earlier. Food away from home was up 3.5% over the past year.
The pressure is already showing
Chicken-heavy brands are already feeling a tough market. Wingstop lowered its 2026 domestic same-store sales outlook on Oct. 28 to a decline of about 6.5% to 7%, after a 5.4% third-quarter drop, according to QSR Research Hub. At the same time, guests are watching every dollar. At Chipotle, CEO Scott Boatwright said low-income consumers outperformed higher-income guests in the third quarter for the first time this year, CNBC reported. We covered more of this uneven fast-food picture in our look at Burger King, Popeyes and Wendy’s.
What restaurant owners can do now
Maloni’s advice, laid out in the Modern Restaurant Management piece and summarized by Restaurant Rundown, is to plan before the increases land rather than react after:
- Start with your own purchasing list. Identify the handful of products that account for most of your spending, then check where those specific markets are headed.
- Cost the whole dish, not one ingredient. A chicken sandwich with cheese carries both chicken and dairy exposure on one plate.
- Talk to your supplier early. Ask about pricing, contract terms and fuel surcharges, and watch delivery costs alongside the food price.
- Be careful with price locks. Maloni notes that a fixed price buys certainty but doesn’t guarantee savings, and smaller operators may lack the volume to win an attractive offer.
- Adjust recipes and portions where it makes sense, and put more emphasis on dishes with stronger margins.
- Don’t assume a lower-cost protein is safe. Maloni said beef’s high prices are nudging some consumers toward chicken, and tighter supply could lift chicken prices this winter.
- Raise prices surgically, not across the board. Compare with nearby alternatives and target the items that need it, because guests are managing their own rising costs.
“The value of a forecast is in the decision it helps you make,” Maloni said. For most independent restaurants, that decision is simple to start: build the expected increases into the 2027 budget now, while there is still time to change the menu on your own terms.
What it means for diners
If you love wings, chicken tenders, egg-heavy brunch plates or anything smothered in cheese, watch for menu changes, smaller promotions or new combos in the new year. Steakhouses, interestingly, may see the least new pressure on their ingredient costs. As always, nothing here is a guarantee of what any single restaurant will charge. Each owner will decide how much to absorb and how much to pass along.
